AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Hawthorn to win at 84% probability. The predicted margin of 29.3 was reasonable against the actual 20-point result. Hawthorn trailed 40–35 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 60–80. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Carlton
16%
Hawthorn
84%
AI Match Overview
Hawthorn are clear favourites here at 84%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Carlton. The model sees Hawthorn ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO. Hawthorn carry a 271-point ELO rating advantage (1715 vs 1444). Recent form favours Hawthorn with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Carlton. The margin model predicts Hawthorn by 29.3 points with a combined total of 147.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Hawthorn to Win @1.44
Winner ✓
Edge
+14.1%
Line / Spread
Hawthorn +15.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+14.1%
Total Points
Under 154.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Carlton | WLLLL | 70.2 |
Hawthorn | WWWWL | 109.6 |
Avg Conceded
80.6
Carlton
68.8
Hawthorn
Avg Margin
-10.4
Carlton
40.8
Hawthorn
Disposals
379.2
Carlton
363.0
Hawthorn
Inside 50s
50.0
Carlton
50.0
Hawthorn
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
84%
Hawthorn predicted to win by 29 points
Predicted total: 147 · Line: -29.3
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.17
Team Effectiveness
-0.54
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.