AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Richmond to win at 74% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 13.4 but the actual margin was 49 points. Richmond led 30–39 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 49. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
West Coast Eagles
26%
Richmond
74%
AI Match Overview
Richmond are clear favourites here at 74%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over West Coast Eagles. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. West Coast Eagles carry a 41-point ELO rating advantage (1509 vs 1467). The margin model predicts Richmond by 13.4 points with a combined total of 152.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Richmond to Win @2.30
Winner ✓
Edge
+30.4%
Line / Spread
Richmond -6.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+30.4%
Total Points
Under 159.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
West Coast Eagles | WWWLL | 94.1 |
Richmond | WWWLL | 88.9 |
Avg Conceded
76.3
West Coast Eagles
73.8
Richmond
Avg Margin
25.5
West Coast Eagles
16.5
Richmond
Disposals
339.5
West Coast Eagles
339.2
Richmond
Inside 50s
52.6
West Coast Eagles
51.6
Richmond
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
74%
Richmond predicted to win by 13 points
Predicted total: 152 · Line: -13.4
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.27
Team Effectiveness
+0.12
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.