AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Geelong Cats to win at 98% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 65.6 but the actual margin was 31 points. Total score prediction of 193 was close to the actual 195 — within 2 points. Geelong Cats led 62–47 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 31. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Geelong Cats
98%
St Kilda
2%
AI Match Overview
Geelong Cats are clear favourites here at 98%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over St Kilda. The model sees Geelong Cats ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO. Geelong Cats carry a 318-point ELO rating advantage (1654 vs 1336). Recent form favours Geelong Cats with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for St Kilda. The margin model predicts Geelong Cats by 65.6 points with a combined total of 193.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Geelong Cats to Win @1.12
Winner ✓
Edge
+8.7%
Line / Spread
Geelong Cats -36.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+8.7%
Total Points
Over 171.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Geelong Cats | WWWLL | 94.4 |
St Kilda | LLLLL | 72.8 |
Avg Conceded
69.6
Geelong Cats
101.4
St Kilda
Avg Margin
24.8
Geelong Cats
-28.6
St Kilda
Disposals
357.8
Geelong Cats
348.4
St Kilda
Inside 50s
50.0
Geelong Cats
50.0
St Kilda
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
98%
Geelong Cats predicted to win by 66 points
Predicted total: 193 · Line: +65.6
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.02
Team Effectiveness
+0.30
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.