AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted GWS GIANTS to win at 86% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 7.1 but the actual margin was 48 points. GWS GIANTS led 14–51 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 48. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Essendon
14%
GWS GIANTS
86%
AI Match Overview
GWS GIANTS are clear favourites here at 86%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Essendon. The model sees GWS GIANTS ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO. GWS GIANTS carry a 361-point ELO rating advantage (1640 vs 1279). Recent form favours GWS GIANTS with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Essendon. The margin model predicts GWS GIANTS by 7.1 points with a combined total of 147.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
GWS GIANTS to Win @1.10
Winner ✓
Edge
-5.2%
Line / Spread
GWS GIANTS +40.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-5.2%
Total Points
Under 168.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Essendon | LLLLL | 60.0 |
GWS GIANTS | WWWWL | 97.0 |
Avg Conceded
98.8
Essendon
79.6
GWS GIANTS
Avg Margin
-38.8
Essendon
17.4
GWS GIANTS
Disposals
364.2
Essendon
359.4
GWS GIANTS
Inside 50s
50.0
Essendon
50.0
GWS GIANTS
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
86%
GWS GIANTS predicted to win by 7 points
Predicted total: 147 · Line: -7.1
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.13
Team Effectiveness
-0.01
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.