AFL | Round 18

alphr.com.au

WBD
Western Bulldogs
VS
ADE
Adelaide Crows
MARVEL STADIUM • TUESDAY 24 FEB, 10:45 PM

AI Game Review

Our model correctly predicted Adelaide Crows to win at 50% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 7.8 but the actual margin was 11 points. The game's 207 points came in 33 points higher than the predicted 174. The model went 1/3 on this match.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability

AI Win Probability

50%Western BulldogsFavourite

Western Bulldogs

50%

Adelaide Crows

50%

✨

AI Match Overview

This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Adelaide Crows a marginal 50% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. Western Bulldogs are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO — but Adelaide Crows counter with Defensive ELO which tips the scales. The margin model predicts Western Bulldogs by 7.8 points with a combined total of 174.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

2 ACTIVE EDGES

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Adelaide Crows to Win @2.55

Winner ✓

Edge

+11.1%

✓

Line / Spread

Western Bulldogs -11.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+11.1%

✗

Total Points

Under 183.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+2.6%

✗

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Western Bulldogs
WWWWL
113.0
Adelaide Crows
WWWWL
91.0

Avg Conceded

75.6

Western Bulldogs

56.4

Adelaide Crows

Avg Margin

37.4

Western Bulldogs

34.6

Adelaide Crows

Disposals

372.8

Western Bulldogs

341.6

Adelaide Crows

Inside 50s

50.0

Western Bulldogs

50.0

Adelaide Crows

H2H History (Last 5)Western Bulldogs lead 3-2
Mar 2026WBD 94 - 88 ADE
Aug 2024WBD 72 - 111 ADE
May 2023WBD 85 - 40 ADE
Apr 2022WBD 62 - 63 ADE
Jul 2021WBD 105 - 56 ADE
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

WBD
1721Overall1714
ADE
ELO difference: +7 in favour of Western Bulldogs

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

1270Midfield1172
Best: 1317WBD +98Best: 1233
1127Forwards1085
Best: 1406WBD +42Best: 1359
1183Defence1245
Best: 1273ADE +63Best: 1389
1407Ruck1241
Best: 1407WBD +166Best: 1241

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

WBD
Stat
ADE
4.0
Wins (Last 5)
4.0
113.0pts
Avg Score
91.0pts
75.6pts
Avg Conceded
56.4pts
37.4pts
Avg Margin
34.6pts
372.8
Disposals
341.6
50.0
Inside 50s
50.0
59.2
Tackles
71.2
37.6
Clearances
38.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Bulldogs
2
Midfield ELO11.0%
Bulldogs
3
Recent Win Rate10.0%
—
4
Forward Line ELO9.0%
Bulldogs
5
Defensive ELO8.0%
Crows
6
Scoring Form8.0%
Bulldogs
7
Venue Advantage7.0%
—

Model Confidence

50%

Western Bulldogs predicted to win by 8 points

Predicted total: 174 · Line: +7.8

Player Work Effort

Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)

Team Effort

-0.23

Team Effectiveness

-0.11

4
Elite
3
Hard Worker
5
Efficient
11
Poor Game
Sort:

Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.

1/3 predictions correct
Coming Soon

Goal Scorer Predictions

AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.

First / Anytime / Last ScorerPlayer Props