AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Sydney Swans to win at 88% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 33.6 but the actual margin was 5 points. The game's 179 points came in 23 points higher than the predicted 156. Sydney Swans trailed 46–36 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 87–92. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
St Kilda
12%
Sydney Swans
88%
AI Match Overview
Sydney Swans are clear favourites here at 88%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over St Kilda. The model sees Sydney Swans ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Sydney Swans carry a 131-point ELO rating advantage (1484 vs 1354). Recent form favours Sydney Swans with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for St Kilda. The margin model predicts Sydney Swans by 33.6 points with a combined total of 156.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sydney Swans to Win @1.63
Winner ✓
Edge
+27.0%
Line / Spread
Sydney Swans +8.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+27.0%
Total Points
Under 166.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
St Kilda | WLLLL | 73.6 |
Sydney Swans | WWWLL | 76.4 |
Avg Conceded
95.6
St Kilda
81.4
Sydney Swans
Avg Margin
-22.0
St Kilda
-5.0
Sydney Swans
Disposals
355.2
St Kilda
349.8
Sydney Swans
Inside 50s
50.0
St Kilda
50.0
Sydney Swans
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
88%
Sydney Swans predicted to win by 34 points
Predicted total: 156 · Line: -33.6
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.22
Team Effectiveness
-0.09
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.