AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Richmond to win at 77% probability. The margin model was sharp — predicting Richmond by 5.2 vs the actual margin of 9 points. The game's 83 points came in 76 points lower than the predicted 159. Richmond trailed 23–24 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 46–37. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Richmond
77%
Essendon
23%
AI Match Overview
Richmond are clear favourites here at 77%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Essendon. Essendon are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO — but Richmond counter with Defensive ELO which tips the scales. Essendon carry a 216-point ELO rating advantage (1322 vs 1106). The margin model predicts Richmond by 5.2 points with a combined total of 159.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Richmond to Win @3.30
Winner ✓
Edge
+47.0%
Line / Spread
Richmond +15.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+47.0%
Total Points
Under 162.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Richmond | LLLLL | 55.0 |
Essendon | LLLLL | 67.0 |
Avg Conceded
108.2
Richmond
107.6
Essendon
Avg Margin
-53.2
Richmond
-40.6
Essendon
Disposals
327.8
Richmond
366.0
Essendon
Inside 50s
50.0
Richmond
50.0
Essendon
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
77%
Richmond predicted to win by 5 points
Predicted total: 159 · Line: +5.2
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.10
Team Effectiveness
+0.06
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.