AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Port Adelaide to win at 73% probability. The margin model was sharp — predicting Port Adelaide by 22.4 vs the actual margin of 26 points. Total score prediction of 151 was close to the actual 148 — within 3 points. Port Adelaide trailed 36–47 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 87–61. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Port Adelaide
73%
West Coast Eagles
27%
AI Match Overview
Port Adelaide are clear favourites here at 73%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over West Coast Eagles. The model sees Port Adelaide ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO. Port Adelaide carry a 363-point ELO rating advantage (1461 vs 1099). Recent form favours Port Adelaide with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for West Coast Eagles. The margin model predicts Port Adelaide by 22.4 points with a combined total of 151.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Port Adelaide to Win @1.06
Winner ✓
Edge
-21.0%
Line / Spread
Port Adelaide -45.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-21.0%
Total Points
Under 169.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Port Adelaide | WWWLL | 82.6 |
West Coast Eagles | LLLLL | 57.6 |
Avg Conceded
73.8
Port Adelaide
92.6
West Coast Eagles
Avg Margin
8.8
Port Adelaide
-35.0
West Coast Eagles
Disposals
348.8
Port Adelaide
334.0
West Coast Eagles
Inside 50s
50.0
Port Adelaide
50.0
West Coast Eagles
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
73%
Port Adelaide predicted to win by 22 points
Predicted total: 151 · Line: +22.4
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.06
Team Effectiveness
-0.17
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.