AFL | Round 18

alphr.com.au

GWS
GWS GIANTS
VS
GEE
Geelong Cats
ENGIE STADIUM • TUESDAY 24 FEB, 10:45 PM

AI Game Review

GWS GIANTS defied the model's 55% prediction for Geelong Cats — a notable result. The margin model missed here — predicting 7.2 but the actual margin was 26 points. The game's 196 points came in 29 points higher than the predicted 167. GWS GIANTS led 47–41 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 26. A tough result for the model — all 3 picks missed on this one.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability

AI Win Probability

55%Geelong CatsFavourite

GWS GIANTS

45%

Geelong Cats

55%

✨

AI Match Overview

Geelong Cats hold the advantage at 55% win probability, though GWS GIANTS are far from out of this at 45%. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Geelong Cats carry a 132-point ELO rating advantage (1713 vs 1581). The margin model predicts Geelong Cats by 7.2 points with a combined total of 167.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Geelong Cats to Win @1.72

Lost ✗

Edge

-3.1%

✗

Line / Spread

Geelong Cats +5.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

-3.1%

✗

Total Points

Under 179.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+2.6%

✗

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
GWS GIANTS
WWWWL
90.8
Geelong Cats
WWWWL
100.6

Avg Conceded

78.0

GWS GIANTS

62.0

Geelong Cats

Avg Margin

12.8

GWS GIANTS

38.6

Geelong Cats

Disposals

364.0

GWS GIANTS

361.6

Geelong Cats

Inside 50s

50.0

GWS GIANTS

50.0

Geelong Cats

H2H History (Last 5)GWS GIANTS lead 3-2
May 2025GWS 105 - 101 GEE
May 2024GWS 78 - 74 GEE
May 2023GWS 81 - 74 GEE
Apr 2022GWS 35 - 88 GEE
Sep 2021GWS 68 - 103 GEE
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

GWS
1581Overall1713
GEE
ELO difference: -132 in favour of Geelong Cats

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

1306Midfield1263
Best: 1361GWS +43Best: 1309
1253Forwards1335
Best: 1458GEE +82Best: 1491
1248Defence1208
Best: 1466GWS +40Best: 1401
1323Ruck1204
Best: 1323GWS +120Best: 1407

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

GWS
Stat
GEE
4.0
Wins (Last 5)
4.0
90.8pts
Avg Score
100.6pts
78.0pts
Avg Conceded
62.0pts
12.8pts
Avg Margin
38.6pts
364.0
Disposals
361.6
50.0
Inside 50s
50.0
64.2
Tackles
62.0
35.8
Clearances
39.4

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Cats
2
Midfield ELO11.0%
GIANTS
3
Recent Win Rate10.0%
—
4
Forward Line ELO9.0%
Cats
5
Defensive ELO8.0%
GIANTS
6
Scoring Form8.0%
Cats
7
Venue Advantage7.0%
GIANTS

Model Confidence

55%

Geelong Cats predicted to win by 7 points

Predicted total: 167 · Line: -7.2

Player Work Effort

Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)

Team Effort

-0.24

Team Effectiveness

+0.01

6
Elite
2
Hard Worker
5
Efficient
9
Poor Game
Sort:

Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.

0/3 predictions correct
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Goal Scorer Predictions

AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.

First / Anytime / Last ScorerPlayer Props