AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Fremantle to win at 57% probability. The predicted margin of 6.4 was reasonable against the actual 13-point result. Fremantle trailed 37–46 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 77–64. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Fremantle
57%
Hawthorn
43%
AI Match Overview
Fremantle hold the advantage at 57% win probability, though Hawthorn are far from out of this at 43%. Hawthorn are stronger on paper across 3 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Forward Line ELO and Defensive ELO — but Fremantle counter with Midfield ELO which tips the scales. Hawthorn carry a 97-point ELO rating advantage (1685 vs 1589). The margin model predicts Fremantle by 6.4 points with a combined total of 151.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Fremantle to Win @1.83
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.8%
Line / Spread
Fremantle -2.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.8%
Total Points
Under 154.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Fremantle | WWWWL | 83.2 |
Hawthorn | WWWWL | 85.6 |
Avg Conceded
71.4
Fremantle
69.8
Hawthorn
Avg Margin
11.8
Fremantle
15.8
Hawthorn
Disposals
341.6
Fremantle
351.4
Hawthorn
Inside 50s
50.0
Fremantle
50.0
Hawthorn
ELO–Market Disagreement
Hawthorn hold the ELO advantage (1685 vs 1589), but the market favours Fremantle (@1.83).
The model sides with the market — other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
57%
Fremantle predicted to win by 6 points
Predicted total: 151 · Line: +6.4
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.47
Team Effectiveness
-0.14
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.