AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Hawthorn to win at 91% probability. The predicted margin of 28.1 was reasonable against the actual 20-point result. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
St Kilda
9%
Hawthorn
91%
AI Match Overview
Hawthorn are clear favourites here at 91%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over St Kilda. The model sees Hawthorn ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO. Hawthorn carry a 304-point ELO rating advantage (1672 vs 1367). Recent form favours Hawthorn with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for St Kilda. The margin model predicts Hawthorn by 28.1 points with a combined total of 160.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Hawthorn to Win @1.35
Winner ✓
Edge
+16.5%
Line / Spread
Hawthorn +18.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+16.5%
Total Points
Under 166.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
St Kilda | WLLLL | 71.0 |
Hawthorn | WWWLL | 78.8 |
Avg Conceded
92.8
St Kilda
73.6
Hawthorn
Avg Margin
-21.8
St Kilda
5.2
Hawthorn
Disposals
360.8
St Kilda
356.2
Hawthorn
Inside 50s
50.0
St Kilda
50.0
Hawthorn
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
91%
Hawthorn predicted to win by 28 points
Predicted total: 160 · Line: -28.1
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.01
Team Effectiveness
+0.08
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.