AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Gold Coast SUNS to win at 96% probability. The predicted margin of 36.4 was reasonable against the actual 41-point result. The game's 189 points came in 30 points higher than the predicted 159. Gold Coast SUNS led 41–45 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 41. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Essendon
4%
Gold Coast SUNS
96%
AI Match Overview
Gold Coast SUNS are clear favourites here at 96%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Essendon. The model sees Gold Coast SUNS ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Gold Coast SUNS carry a 228-point ELO rating advantage (1580 vs 1352). Recent form favours Gold Coast SUNS with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Essendon. The margin model predicts Gold Coast SUNS by 36.4 points with a combined total of 159.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Gold Coast SUNS to Win @1.33
Winner ✓
Edge
+20.4%
Line / Spread
Gold Coast SUNS +19.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+20.4%
Total Points
Under 171.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Essendon | WLLLL | 68.4 |
Gold Coast SUNS | WWLLL | 76.8 |
Avg Conceded
96.2
Essendon
77.6
Gold Coast SUNS
Avg Margin
-27.8
Essendon
-0.8
Gold Coast SUNS
Disposals
386.2
Essendon
345.8
Gold Coast SUNS
Inside 50s
50.0
Essendon
50.0
Gold Coast SUNS
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
96%
Gold Coast SUNS predicted to win by 36 points
Predicted total: 159 · Line: -36.4
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.04
Team Effectiveness
-0.10
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.