AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Brisbane Lions to win at 92% probability. The margin model was sharp — predicting Brisbane Lions by 29.3 vs the actual margin of 28 points. The game's 212 points came in 30 points higher than the predicted 182. Brisbane Lions led 62–41 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 28. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Brisbane Lions
92%
Port Adelaide
8%
AI Match Overview
Brisbane Lions are clear favourites here at 92%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Port Adelaide. The model sees Brisbane Lions ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Scoring Form. Brisbane Lions carry a 267-point ELO rating advantage (1743 vs 1476). The margin model predicts Brisbane Lions by 29.3 points with a combined total of 182.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Brisbane Lions to Win @1.20
Winner ✓
Edge
+8.4%
Line / Spread
Brisbane Lions -26.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+8.4%
Total Points
Over 169.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Brisbane Lions | WWWLL | 86.8 |
Port Adelaide | WWWLL | 74.4 |
Avg Conceded
71.6
Brisbane Lions
69.8
Port Adelaide
Avg Margin
15.2
Brisbane Lions
4.6
Port Adelaide
Disposals
371.2
Brisbane Lions
352.0
Port Adelaide
Inside 50s
50.0
Brisbane Lions
50.0
Port Adelaide
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
92%
Brisbane Lions predicted to win by 29 points
Predicted total: 182 · Line: +29.3
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.52
Team Effectiveness
+0.02
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.