Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Adelaide Crows
71%
Melbourne
29%
AI Match Overview
Adelaide Crows are clear favourites here at 71%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Melbourne. The model sees Adelaide Crows ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Adelaide Crows carry a 360-point ELO rating advantage (1708 vs 1347). Recent form favours Adelaide Crows with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Melbourne. The margin model predicts Adelaide Crows by 10.1 points with a combined total of 171.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Adelaide Crows to Win @1.20
Winner ✓
Edge
-12.0%
Line / Spread
Adelaide Crows -28.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-12.0%
Total Points
Under 171.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Adelaide Crows | WWWWL | 98.6 |
Melbourne | WLLLL | 83.6 |
Avg Conceded
53.4
Adelaide Crows
87.6
Melbourne
Avg Margin
45.2
Adelaide Crows
-4.0
Melbourne
Disposals
353.8
Adelaide Crows
345.0
Melbourne
Inside 50s
50.0
Adelaide Crows
50.0
Melbourne
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
71%
Adelaide Crows predicted to win by 10 points
Predicted total: 171 · Line: +10.1
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.26
Team Effectiveness
-0.31
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.