AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Hawthorn to win at 98% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 61.2 but the actual margin was 85 points. The game's 215 points came in 28 points higher than the predicted 187. Hawthorn led 86–35 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 85. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Hawthorn
98%
North Melbourne
2%
AI Match Overview
Hawthorn are clear favourites here at 98%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over North Melbourne. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Hawthorn carry a 356-point ELO rating advantage (1651 vs 1295). Recent form favours North Melbourne with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Hawthorn. The margin model predicts Hawthorn by 61.2 points with a combined total of 187.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Hawthorn to Win @1.14
Winner ✓
Edge
+10.1%
Line / Spread
Hawthorn -32.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+10.1%
Total Points
Over 157.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Hawthorn | WWLLL | 68.0 |
North Melbourne | WWWLL | 70.8 |
Avg Conceded
81.4
Hawthorn
76.0
North Melbourne
Avg Margin
-13.4
Hawthorn
-5.2
North Melbourne
Disposals
352.6
Hawthorn
363.4
North Melbourne
Inside 50s
50.0
Hawthorn
50.0
North Melbourne
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
98%
Hawthorn predicted to win by 61 points
Predicted total: 187 · Line: +61.2
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.15
Team Effectiveness
+0.37
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.