Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Gold Coast SUNS
57%
Melbourne
43%
AI Match Overview
Gold Coast SUNS hold the advantage at 57% win probability, though Melbourne are far from out of this at 43%. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Gold Coast SUNS carry a 199-point ELO rating advantage (1563 vs 1364). The margin model predicts Gold Coast SUNS by 10.4 points with a combined total of 173.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Gold Coast SUNS to Win @1.27
Winner ✓
Edge
-21.8%
Line / Spread
Gold Coast SUNS -22.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-21.8%
Total Points
Over 172.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Gold Coast SUNS | WWLLL | 76.8 |
Melbourne | WWLLL | 86.4 |
Avg Conceded
79.8
Gold Coast SUNS
84.4
Melbourne
Avg Margin
-3.0
Gold Coast SUNS
2.0
Melbourne
Disposals
352.2
Gold Coast SUNS
348.8
Melbourne
Inside 50s
50.0
Gold Coast SUNS
50.0
Melbourne
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
57%
Gold Coast SUNS predicted to win by 10 points
Predicted total: 173 · Line: +10.4
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.14
Team Effectiveness
+0.27
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.