AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Collingwood to win at 98% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 76.7 but the actual margin was 29 points. The game's 147 points came in 55 points lower than the predicted 202. Collingwood trailed 35–43 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 88–59. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 40+ margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Collingwood
98%
West Coast Eagles
2%
AI Match Overview
Collingwood are clear favourites here at 98%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over West Coast Eagles. The model sees Collingwood ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Collingwood carry a 728-point ELO rating advantage (1840 vs 1112). Recent form favours Collingwood with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for West Coast Eagles. The margin model predicts Collingwood by 76.7 points with a combined total of 202.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Collingwood to Win @1.02
Winner ✓
Edge
-0.4%
Line / Spread
Collingwood -60.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-0.4%
Total Points
Over 174.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Collingwood | WWWWW | 94.6 |
West Coast Eagles | WLLLL | 69.4 |
Avg Conceded
66.4
Collingwood
94.4
West Coast Eagles
Avg Margin
28.2
Collingwood
-25.0
West Coast Eagles
Disposals
345.8
Collingwood
315.8
West Coast Eagles
Inside 50s
50.0
Collingwood
50.0
West Coast Eagles
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
98%
Collingwood predicted to win by 77 points
Predicted total: 202 · Line: +76.7
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.11
Team Effectiveness
+0.16
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.