AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Brisbane Lions to win at 55% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 10.5 but the actual margin was 41 points. The game's 143 points came in 21 points lower than the predicted 164. Brisbane Lions led 23–46 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 41. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Geelong Cats
45%
Brisbane Lions
55%
AI Match Overview
Brisbane Lions hold the advantage at 55% win probability, though Geelong Cats are far from out of this at 45%. Geelong Cats are stronger on paper across 7 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate — but Brisbane Lions counter with overall balance which tips the scales. Geelong Cats carry a 144-point ELO rating advantage (1798 vs 1653). Recent form favours Geelong Cats with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Brisbane Lions. The margin model predicts Brisbane Lions by 10.5 points with a combined total of 164.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Brisbane Lions to Win @3.30
Winner ✓
Edge
+24.4%
Line / Spread
Brisbane Lions -18.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+24.4%
Total Points
Under 167.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Geelong Cats | WWWWW | 114.0 |
Brisbane Lions | WWLLL | 86.0 |
Avg Conceded
63.6
Geelong Cats
81.2
Brisbane Lions
Avg Margin
50.4
Geelong Cats
4.8
Brisbane Lions
Disposals
365.2
Geelong Cats
372.2
Brisbane Lions
Inside 50s
50.0
Geelong Cats
50.0
Brisbane Lions
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
55%
Brisbane Lions predicted to win by 10 points
Predicted total: 164 · Line: -10.5
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.17
Team Effectiveness
-0.38
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.