AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Carlton to win at 79% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 19.2 but the actual margin was 34 points. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
West Coast Eagles
21%
Carlton
79%
AI Match Overview
Carlton are clear favourites here at 79%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over West Coast Eagles. The model sees Carlton ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Carlton carry a 61-point ELO rating advantage (1561 vs 1499). Recent form favours Carlton with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for West Coast Eagles. The margin model predicts Carlton by 19.2 points with a combined total of 148.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Carlton to Win @1.27
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.3%
Line / Spread
Carlton +23.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.3%
Total Points
Under 167.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
West Coast Eagles | WWWLL | 101.5 |
Carlton | WWWWL | 71.0 |
Avg Conceded
68.3
West Coast Eagles
91.1
Carlton
Avg Margin
-5.9
West Coast Eagles
10.2
Carlton
Disposals
369.2
West Coast Eagles
340.7
Carlton
Inside 50s
54.7
West Coast Eagles
54.7
Carlton
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
79%
Carlton predicted to win by 19 points
Predicted total: 148 · Line: -19.2
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.26
Team Effectiveness
-0.12
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.