AI Game Review
Hawthorn defied the model's 66% prediction for Western Bulldogs — a notable upset. The margin model missed here — predicting 2.9 but the actual margin was 22 points. The game's 140 points came in 19 points lower than the predicted 159. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 175.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Western Bulldogs
66%
Hawthorn
34%
AI Match Overview
Western Bulldogs are clear favourites here at 66%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Hawthorn. The model sees Western Bulldogs ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Western Bulldogs carry a 138-point ELO rating advantage (1701 vs 1562). Recent form favours Western Bulldogs with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Hawthorn. The margin model predicts Western Bulldogs by 2.9 points with a combined total of 159.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Western Bulldogs to Win @1.33
Lost ✗
Edge
-9.3%
Line / Spread
Western Bulldogs -20.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-9.3%
Total Points
Under 175.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Western Bulldogs | WWWLL | 116.0 |
Hawthorn | WWLLL | 82.4 |
Avg Conceded
78.2
Western Bulldogs
80.8
Hawthorn
Avg Margin
37.8
Western Bulldogs
1.6
Hawthorn
Disposals
395.8
Western Bulldogs
370.8
Hawthorn
Inside 50s
50.0
Western Bulldogs
50.0
Hawthorn
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
66%
Western Bulldogs predicted to win by 3 points
Predicted total: 159 · Line: +2.9
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.29
Team Effectiveness
-0.25
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.