AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Port Adelaide to win at 63% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 2.3 but the actual margin was 16 points. The game's 116 points came in 30 points lower than the predicted 146. Port Adelaide trailed 40–37 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 50–66. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
GWS GIANTS
37%
Port Adelaide
63%
AI Match Overview
Port Adelaide hold the advantage at 63% win probability, though GWS GIANTS are far from out of this at 37%. GWS GIANTS are stronger on paper across 5 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO — but Port Adelaide counter with Midfield ELO which tips the scales. GWS GIANTS carry a 185-point ELO rating advantage (1546 vs 1361). Recent form favours GWS GIANTS with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Port Adelaide. The margin model predicts Port Adelaide by 2.3 points with a combined total of 146.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Port Adelaide to Win @3.50
Winner ✓
Edge
+34.7%
Line / Spread
Port Adelaide -19.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+34.7%
Total Points
Under 159.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
GWS GIANTS | WWWLL | 85.8 |
Port Adelaide | WLLLL | 62.4 |
Avg Conceded
88.4
GWS GIANTS
104.6
Port Adelaide
Avg Margin
-2.6
GWS GIANTS
-42.2
Port Adelaide
Disposals
355.2
GWS GIANTS
341.0
Port Adelaide
Inside 50s
50.0
GWS GIANTS
50.0
Port Adelaide
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
63%
Port Adelaide predicted to win by 2 points
Predicted total: 146 · Line: -2.3
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.07
Team Effectiveness
-0.26
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.