AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Geelong Cats to win at 72% probability. The margin model was sharp — predicting Geelong Cats by 20.0 vs the actual margin of 24 points. The game's 98 points came in 66 points lower than the predicted 164. Geelong Cats led 28–21 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 24. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Geelong Cats
72%
Gold Coast SUNS
28%
AI Match Overview
Geelong Cats are clear favourites here at 72%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Gold Coast SUNS. The model sees Geelong Cats ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO. Geelong Cats carry a 125-point ELO rating advantage (1743 vs 1617). Recent form favours Geelong Cats with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Gold Coast SUNS. The margin model predicts Geelong Cats by 20.0 points with a combined total of 164.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Geelong Cats to Win @1.42
Winner ✓
Edge
+1.7%
Line / Spread
Geelong Cats -15.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+1.7%
Total Points
Over 158.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Geelong Cats | WWWWL | 109.8 |
Gold Coast SUNS | WWWLL | 80.6 |
Avg Conceded
83.4
Geelong Cats
78.8
Gold Coast SUNS
Avg Margin
26.4
Geelong Cats
1.8
Gold Coast SUNS
Disposals
348.6
Geelong Cats
351.8
Gold Coast SUNS
Inside 50s
50.0
Geelong Cats
50.0
Gold Coast SUNS
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
72%
Geelong Cats predicted to win by 20 points
Predicted total: 164 · Line: +20.0
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.07
Team Effectiveness
-0.05
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.