AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Geelong Cats to win at 96% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 57.6 but the actual margin was 43 points. The game's 189 points came in 33 points higher than the predicted 156. Geelong Cats led 44–55 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 43. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 40+ margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
West Coast Eagles
4%
Geelong Cats
96%
AI Match Overview
Geelong Cats are clear favourites here at 96%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over West Coast Eagles. The model sees Geelong Cats ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO. Geelong Cats carry a 46-point ELO rating advantage (1522 vs 1476). Recent form favours West Coast Eagles with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Geelong Cats. The margin model predicts Geelong Cats by 57.6 points with a combined total of 156.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Geelong Cats to Win @1.07
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.3%
Line / Spread
Geelong Cats +44.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.3%
Total Points
Under 175.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
West Coast Eagles | WWWLL | 77.2 |
Geelong Cats | WWLLL | 76.6 |
Avg Conceded
95.2
West Coast Eagles
86.4
Geelong Cats
Avg Margin
8.8
West Coast Eagles
4.2
Geelong Cats
Disposals
349.5
West Coast Eagles
376.1
Geelong Cats
Inside 50s
49.2
West Coast Eagles
54.6
Geelong Cats
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
96%
Geelong Cats predicted to win by 58 points
Predicted total: 156 · Line: -57.6
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.22
Team Effectiveness
+0.12
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.