AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Adelaide Crows to win at 52% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 11.4 but the actual margin was 90 points. The game's 172 points came in 24 points higher than the predicted 148. Adelaide Crows led 10–75 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 90. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Sydney Swans
48%
Adelaide Crows
52%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Adelaide Crows a marginal 52% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. The model sees Adelaide Crows ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Adelaide Crows carry a 224-point ELO rating advantage (1650 vs 1426). Recent form favours Adelaide Crows with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Sydney Swans. The margin model predicts Adelaide Crows by 11.4 points with a combined total of 148.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Adelaide Crows to Win @1.58
Winner ✓
Edge
-11.2%
Line / Spread
Adelaide Crows +8.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-11.2%
Total Points
Under 172.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Sydney Swans | WWLLL | 77.0 |
Adelaide Crows | WWWLL | 92.4 |
Avg Conceded
90.8
Sydney Swans
71.8
Adelaide Crows
Avg Margin
-13.8
Sydney Swans
20.6
Adelaide Crows
Disposals
345.0
Sydney Swans
347.2
Adelaide Crows
Inside 50s
50.0
Sydney Swans
50.0
Adelaide Crows
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
52%
Adelaide Crows predicted to win by 11 points
Predicted total: 148 · Line: -11.4
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.32
Team Effectiveness
-0.65
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.