Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Melbourne
29%
St Kilda
71%
AI Match Overview
St Kilda are clear favourites here at 71%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Melbourne. Melbourne are stronger on paper across 5 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate — but St Kilda counter with Defensive ELO and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Melbourne carry a 105-point ELO rating advantage (1473 vs 1368). Recent form favours Melbourne with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for St Kilda. The margin model predicts St Kilda by 13.5 points with a combined total of 163.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
St Kilda to Win @2.75
Winner ✓
Edge
+34.3%
Line / Spread
St Kilda -13.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+34.3%
Total Points
Under 168.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Melbourne | WWWWL | 95.4 |
St Kilda | WLLLL | 74.0 |
Avg Conceded
79.2
Melbourne
83.2
St Kilda
Avg Margin
16.2
Melbourne
-9.2
St Kilda
Disposals
384.6
Melbourne
374.8
St Kilda
Inside 50s
50.0
Melbourne
50.0
St Kilda
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
71%
St Kilda predicted to win by 13 points
Predicted total: 163 · Line: -13.5
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.18
Team Effectiveness
+0.07
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.