AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Collingwood to win at 96% probability. The predicted margin of 37.0 was reasonable against the actual 45-point result. The game's 171 points came in 22 points higher than the predicted 149. Collingwood trailed 42–33 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 63–108. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
North Melbourne
4%
Collingwood
96%
AI Match Overview
Collingwood are clear favourites here at 96%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over North Melbourne. The model sees Collingwood ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Defensive ELO. Collingwood carry a 558-point ELO rating advantage (1795 vs 1237). Recent form favours Collingwood with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for North Melbourne. The margin model predicts Collingwood by 37.0 points with a combined total of 149.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Collingwood to Win @1.25
Winner ✓
Edge
+16.1%
Line / Spread
Collingwood +25.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+16.1%
Total Points
Under 176.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
North Melbourne | WLLLL | 74.0 |
Collingwood | WWWWL | 94.8 |
Avg Conceded
92.0
North Melbourne
72.0
Collingwood
Avg Margin
-18.0
North Melbourne
22.8
Collingwood
Disposals
336.4
North Melbourne
340.6
Collingwood
Inside 50s
50.0
North Melbourne
50.0
Collingwood
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
96%
Collingwood predicted to win by 37 points
Predicted total: 149 · Line: -37.0
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.27
Team Effectiveness
-0.04
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.