AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Geelong Cats to win at 75% probability. The predicted margin of 9.0 was reasonable against the actual 14-point result. The game's 240 points came in 60 points higher than the predicted 180. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Geelong Cats
75%
Western Bulldogs
25%
AI Match Overview
Geelong Cats are clear favourites here at 75%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Western Bulldogs. Western Bulldogs are stronger on paper across 5 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO — but Geelong Cats counter with Midfield ELO and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Western Bulldogs carry a 32-point ELO rating advantage (1735 vs 1703). Recent form favours Western Bulldogs with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Geelong Cats. The margin model predicts Geelong Cats by 9.0 points with a combined total of 180.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Geelong Cats to Win @1.83
Winner ✓
Edge
+20.6%
Line / Spread
Geelong Cats -2.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+20.6%
Total Points
Over 174.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Geelong Cats | WWWLL | 93.6 |
Western Bulldogs | WWWWL | 118.8 |
Avg Conceded
80.8
Geelong Cats
64.0
Western Bulldogs
Avg Margin
12.8
Geelong Cats
54.8
Western Bulldogs
Disposals
336.0
Geelong Cats
412.4
Western Bulldogs
Inside 50s
50.0
Geelong Cats
50.0
Western Bulldogs
ELO–Market Disagreement
Western Bulldogs hold the ELO advantage (1735 vs 1703), but the market favours Geelong Cats (@1.83).
The model sides with the market — other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
75%
Geelong Cats predicted to win by 9 points
Predicted total: 180 · Line: +9.0
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.19
Team Effectiveness
+0.28
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.