AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted GWS GIANTS to win at 65% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 8.8 but the actual margin was 28 points. The game's 192 points came in 28 points higher than the predicted 164. GWS GIANTS led 42–52 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 28. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Carlton
35%
GWS GIANTS
65%
AI Match Overview
GWS GIANTS are clear favourites here at 65%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Carlton. Carlton are stronger on paper across 3 of 7 key factors — including Midfield ELO, Recent Win Rate and Scoring Form — but GWS GIANTS counter with Forward Line ELO and Defensive ELO which tips the scales. Recent form favours Carlton with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for GWS GIANTS. The margin model predicts GWS GIANTS by 8.8 points with a combined total of 164.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
GWS GIANTS to Win @2.40
Winner ✓
Edge
+23.8%
Line / Spread
GWS GIANTS -8.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+23.8%
Total Points
Under 170.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Carlton | WWWLL | 87.2 |
GWS GIANTS | WLLLL | 70.8 |
Avg Conceded
79.4
Carlton
89.6
GWS GIANTS
Avg Margin
7.8
Carlton
-18.8
GWS GIANTS
Disposals
355.2
Carlton
366.8
GWS GIANTS
Inside 50s
50.0
Carlton
50.0
GWS GIANTS
ELO–Market Disagreement
GWS GIANTS hold the ELO advantage (1491 vs 1489), but the market favours Carlton (@1.71).
The model sides with ELO — GWS GIANTS predicted to win despite longer odds.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
65%
GWS GIANTS predicted to win by 9 points
Predicted total: 164 · Line: -8.8
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.09
Team Effectiveness
-0.01
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.