AI Game Review
West Coast Eagles defied the model's 54% prediction for St Kilda — a notable result. The margin model missed here — predicting 6.4 but the actual margin was 28 points. West Coast Eagles led 47–28 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 28. The model went 1/3 on this match. The over 169.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
West Coast Eagles
46%
St Kilda
54%
AI Match Overview
St Kilda hold the advantage at 54% win probability, though West Coast Eagles are far from out of this at 46%. The model sees St Kilda ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO. Recent form favours West Coast Eagles with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for St Kilda. The margin model predicts St Kilda by 6.4 points with a combined total of 174.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
St Kilda to Win @1.36
Lost ✗
Edge
-19.5%
Line / Spread
St Kilda +18.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-19.5%
Total Points
Over 169.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
West Coast Eagles | WWLLL | 104.0 |
St Kilda | WLLLL | 83.7 |
Avg Conceded
77.1
West Coast Eagles
82.4
St Kilda
Avg Margin
-3.2
West Coast Eagles
5.4
St Kilda
Disposals
346.5
West Coast Eagles
375.1
St Kilda
Inside 50s
54.2
West Coast Eagles
54.2
St Kilda
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
54%
St Kilda predicted to win by 6 points
Predicted total: 174 · Line: -6.4
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.06
Team Effectiveness
+0.25
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.