AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Collingwood to win at 58% probability. The margin model was sharp — predicting Collingwood by 7.4 vs the actual margin of 10 points. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Collingwood
58%
Adelaide Crows
42%
AI Match Overview
Collingwood hold the advantage at 58% win probability, though Adelaide Crows are far from out of this at 42%. The model sees Collingwood ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Collingwood carry a 119-point ELO rating advantage (1777 vs 1659). Recent form favours Collingwood with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Adelaide Crows. The margin model predicts Collingwood by 7.4 points with a combined total of 153.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Collingwood to Win @1.50
Winner ✓
Edge
-8.5%
Line / Spread
Collingwood -11.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-8.5%
Total Points
Under 167.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Collingwood | WWWWL | 101.0 |
Adelaide Crows | WWWLL | 83.6 |
Avg Conceded
74.0
Collingwood
74.4
Adelaide Crows
Avg Margin
27.0
Collingwood
9.2
Adelaide Crows
Disposals
344.6
Collingwood
349.4
Adelaide Crows
Inside 50s
50.0
Collingwood
50.0
Adelaide Crows
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
58%
Collingwood predicted to win by 7 points
Predicted total: 153 · Line: +7.4
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.24
Team Effectiveness
-0.29
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.