Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Brisbane Lions
95%
Melbourne
5%
AI Match Overview
Brisbane Lions are clear favourites here at 95%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Melbourne. The model sees Brisbane Lions ahead on 3 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Venue Advantage. Brisbane Lions carry a 399-point ELO rating advantage (1718 vs 1319). The margin model predicts Brisbane Lions by 45.7 points with a combined total of 176.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Brisbane Lions to Win @1.14
Lost ✗
Edge
+7.0%
Line / Spread
Brisbane Lions -33.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+7.0%
Total Points
Over 172.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Brisbane Lions | WWWLL | 85.2 |
Melbourne | WWWLL | 82.2 |
Avg Conceded
79.0
Brisbane Lions
84.6
Melbourne
Avg Margin
6.2
Brisbane Lions
-2.4
Melbourne
Disposals
373.2
Brisbane Lions
379.4
Melbourne
Inside 50s
50.0
Brisbane Lions
50.0
Melbourne
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
95%
Brisbane Lions predicted to win by 46 points
Predicted total: 176 · Line: +45.7
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.28
Team Effectiveness
+0.03
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.