AI Game Review
Brisbane Lions defied the model's 67% prediction for Sydney Swans — a notable upset. The margin model missed here — predicting 9.0 but the actual margin was 4 points. Total score prediction of 168 was close to the actual 168 — within 0 points. Brisbane Lions trailed 45–32 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 82–86. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 178.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Sydney Swans
67%
Brisbane Lions
33%
AI Match Overview
Sydney Swans are clear favourites here at 67%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Brisbane Lions. Brisbane Lions are stronger on paper across 6 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate — but Sydney Swans counter with Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Brisbane Lions carry a 164-point ELO rating advantage (1717 vs 1552). Recent form favours Brisbane Lions with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Sydney Swans. The margin model predicts Sydney Swans by 9.0 points with a combined total of 168.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sydney Swans to Win @2.18
Lost ✗
Edge
+21.5%
Line / Spread
Sydney Swans +4.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+21.5%
Total Points
Under 178.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Sydney Swans | WWWLL | 88.0 |
Brisbane Lions | WWWWW | 101.2 |
Avg Conceded
89.4
Sydney Swans
76.6
Brisbane Lions
Avg Margin
-1.4
Sydney Swans
24.6
Brisbane Lions
Disposals
345.2
Sydney Swans
367.2
Brisbane Lions
Inside 50s
50.0
Sydney Swans
50.0
Brisbane Lions
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
67%
Sydney Swans predicted to win by 9 points
Predicted total: 168 · Line: +9.0
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.08
Team Effectiveness
-0.02
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.