Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Melbourne
56%
GWS GIANTS
44%
AI Match Overview
Melbourne hold the advantage at 56% win probability, though GWS GIANTS are far from out of this at 44%. GWS GIANTS are stronger on paper across 6 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate — but Melbourne counter with Venue Advantage which tips the scales. GWS GIANTS carry a 181-point ELO rating advantage (1637 vs 1455). Recent form favours GWS GIANTS with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Melbourne. The margin model predicts GWS GIANTS by 3.0 points with a combined total of 162.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Melbourne to Win @2.35
Lost ✗
Edge
+13.4%
Line / Spread
GWS GIANTS +8.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+13.4%
Total Points
Over 155.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Melbourne | WLLLL | 73.4 |
GWS GIANTS | WWLLL | 89.6 |
Avg Conceded
82.8
Melbourne
87.0
GWS GIANTS
Avg Margin
-9.4
Melbourne
2.6
GWS GIANTS
Disposals
339.0
Melbourne
360.8
GWS GIANTS
Inside 50s
50.0
Melbourne
50.0
GWS GIANTS
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
56%
Melbourne predicted to win by 3 points
Predicted total: 162 · Line: -3.0
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.12
Team Effectiveness
+0.05
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.