AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Collingwood to win at 84% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 17.6 but the actual margin was 91 points. Collingwood led 61–27 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 91. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Collingwood
84%
Port Adelaide
16%
AI Match Overview
Collingwood are clear favourites here at 84%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Port Adelaide. The model sees Collingwood ahead on 3 of 7 key factors including Midfield ELO, Defensive ELO and Scoring Form. Port Adelaide carry a 71-point ELO rating advantage (1559 vs 1488). The margin model predicts Collingwood by 17.6 points with a combined total of 170.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Collingwood to Win @1.58
Winner ✓
Edge
+21.0%
Line / Spread
Collingwood -8.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+21.0%
Total Points
Over 168.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Collingwood | WWWLL | 80.8 |
Port Adelaide | WWWLL | 71.0 |
Avg Conceded
81.8
Collingwood
86.0
Port Adelaide
Avg Margin
-1.0
Collingwood
-15.0
Port Adelaide
Disposals
347.2
Collingwood
311.4
Port Adelaide
Inside 50s
50.0
Collingwood
50.0
Port Adelaide
ELO–Market Disagreement
Port Adelaide hold the ELO advantage (1559 vs 1488), but the market favours Collingwood (@1.58).
The model sides with the market — other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
84%
Collingwood predicted to win by 18 points
Predicted total: 170 · Line: +17.6
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.01
Team Effectiveness
+0.29
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.