AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Adelaide Crows to win at 95% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 41.6 but the actual margin was 63 points. The game's 207 points came in 31 points higher than the predicted 176. Adelaide Crows led 64–27 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 63. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Adelaide Crows
95%
St Kilda
5%
AI Match Overview
Adelaide Crows are clear favourites here at 95%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over St Kilda. St Kilda are stronger on paper across 5 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO — but Adelaide Crows counter with Midfield ELO and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. St Kilda carry a 26-point ELO rating advantage (1522 vs 1495). Recent form favours St Kilda with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Adelaide Crows. The margin model predicts Adelaide Crows by 41.6 points with a combined total of 176.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Adelaide Crows to Win @1.30
Winner ✓
Edge
+18.3%
Line / Spread
Adelaide Crows -21.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+18.3%
Total Points
Over 160.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Adelaide Crows | WLLLL | 80.4 |
St Kilda | WWWWL | 85.8 |
Avg Conceded
97.4
Adelaide Crows
78.6
St Kilda
Avg Margin
-17.0
Adelaide Crows
7.2
St Kilda
Disposals
349.8
Adelaide Crows
377.8
St Kilda
Inside 50s
50.0
Adelaide Crows
50.0
St Kilda
ELO–Market Disagreement
St Kilda hold the ELO advantage (1522 vs 1495), but the market favours Adelaide Crows (@1.30).
The model sides with the market — other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
95%
Adelaide Crows predicted to win by 42 points
Predicted total: 176 · Line: +41.6
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.10
Team Effectiveness
+0.41
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.