AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Geelong Cats to win at 53% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 0.5 but the actual margin was 38 points. Geelong Cats led 59–44 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 38. The model went 2/3 on this match. The over 169.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Geelong Cats
53%
Brisbane Lions
47%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Geelong Cats a marginal 53% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Brisbane Lions carry a 40-point ELO rating advantage (1803 vs 1763). Recent form favours Geelong Cats with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Brisbane Lions.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Geelong Cats to Win @1.75
Winner ✓
Edge
-4.4%
Line / Spread
Brisbane Lions -4.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-4.4%
Total Points
Over 169.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Geelong Cats | WWWWW | 125.2 |
Brisbane Lions | WWWLL | 87.2 |
Avg Conceded
62.2
Geelong Cats
82.0
Brisbane Lions
Avg Margin
63.0
Geelong Cats
5.2
Brisbane Lions
Disposals
369.0
Geelong Cats
381.2
Brisbane Lions
Inside 50s
50.0
Geelong Cats
50.0
Brisbane Lions
ELO–Market Disagreement
Brisbane Lions hold the ELO advantage (1803 vs 1763), but the market favours Geelong Cats (@1.75).
The model sides with the market — other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
53%
Geelong Cats predicted to win by 0 points
Predicted total: 173 · Line: -0.5
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.29
Team Effectiveness
+0.09
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.