AI Game Review
Brisbane Lions defied the model's 80% prediction for Geelong Cats — a notable upset. The margin model missed here — predicting 26.7 but the actual margin was 47 points. The game's 197 points came in 17 points higher than the predicted 180. The model went 1/3 on this match. The over 176.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Geelong Cats
80%
Brisbane Lions
20%
AI Match Overview
Geelong Cats are clear favourites here at 80%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Brisbane Lions. The model sees Geelong Cats ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO. Geelong Cats carry a 37-point ELO rating advantage (1870 vs 1833). Recent form favours Geelong Cats with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 4 for Brisbane Lions. The margin model predicts Geelong Cats by 26.7 points with a combined total of 180.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Geelong Cats to Win @1.54
Lost ✗
Edge
+14.7%
Line / Spread
Geelong Cats -11.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+14.7%
Total Points
Over 176.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Geelong Cats | WWWWW | 110.0 |
Brisbane Lions | WWWWL | 92.8 |
Avg Conceded
71.2
Geelong Cats
70.6
Brisbane Lions
Avg Margin
38.8
Geelong Cats
22.2
Brisbane Lions
Disposals
348.8
Geelong Cats
384.0
Brisbane Lions
Inside 50s
50.0
Geelong Cats
50.0
Brisbane Lions
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
80%
Geelong Cats predicted to win by 27 points
Predicted total: 180 · Line: +26.7
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.14
Team Effectiveness
-0.16
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.